2014 Oscar Predictions: Take Two

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It’s been almost a month since the Academy Award nominations were first announced, and surprisingly, little has changed in my predictions in the time since, though several changes have been made. Various guilds have handed out awards in the past couple weeks, including the Directors Guild, who gave their top prize to Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuaron (no surprise). That film also, in an unprecedented move, tied with 12 Years A Slave at the Producers Guild Awards, which didn’t do too much more than shift Gravity into my #2 spot in Best Picture, ahead of American Hustle, though the film certainly has some momentum now that 12 Years A Slave doesn’t.

Additionally, Her (original screenplay) and Captain Phillips (adapted screenplay) took home trophies for their respective categories at the Writers Guild Awards last week, cementing Spike Jonze’s (Her) frontrunner status at the Oscars and moving Billy Ray’s screenplay for Captain Phillips up the ranks in the Adapted category. However, it’s good to keep in mind that 12 Years A Slave — my current frontrunner in Adapted — and Philomena were both ineligible for the Writers Guild Awards, which means I’m not of the persuasion that Captain Phillips‘ win does anything to hurt the chances of 12 Years A Slave taking home the Oscar.

Finally, Gravity‘s director of photography Emmanuel Lubezki picked up a win from the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) for his work on the film, and just the other day, American Hustle (comedy) and Captain Phillips (drama) took home awards from the American Cinema Editors (ACE) in their annual Eddie Awards.

Lubezki has long been the frontrunner for the duration of the Best Cinematography, so the win from his peers comes as no surprise. However, Captain Phillips‘ win at the Eddies is a bit more interesting, as it seemed up to this point that all the momentum was on Gravity‘s side — and if in fact the winds weren’t at Gravity‘s back, then a win by 12 Years A Slave would have been no real surprise.

I’m not entirely surprised by the recognition received by Captain Phillips here (or American Hustle for that matter), as the editing was among the best parts of the true-life thriller, but this makes the race more interesting nonetheless. Perhaps this year we could see the Best Film Editing award go to a film that isn’t the Best Picture winner, just as it did in 2010 (The Social Network) and 2011 (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).

Aside from a few tweaks here and there to accompany some of the momentum from the guild awards mentioned above, as well a bunch of small re-arrangements in my Best Picture predictions no really big changes have been made in my predictions. Here is the new breakdown in terms of predicted wins by each film, again excluding the shorts as I did in my previous predictions:

Gravity: 6 wins
12 Years A Slave: 3 wins
Dallas Buyers Club: 3 wins
Frozen: 2 wins
The Great Gatsby: 2 win
The Act of Killing: 1 win
Blue Jasmine: 1 win
Captain Phillips: 1 win
The Great Beauty: 1 win
Her: 1 win

With the totals out of the way, let’s again take a look at my predictions for each category. Note that the number in parentheses is that nominee’s previous ranking in its category (dashes means no change).

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Best Picture
1. 12 Years A Slave (–)
2. Gravity (3)
3. American Hustle (2)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (5)
5. Nebraska (4)
6. Captain Phillips (7)
7. The Wolf of Wall Street (8)
8. Her (6)
9. Philomena (–)

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Best Actor
1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers (–)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave (–)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street (4)
4. Bruce Dern, Nebraska (3)
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle (–)

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Best Supporting Actor
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (–)
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave (–)
3. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle (–)
4. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
5. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

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Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 12 Years A Slave (–)
2. Before Midnight (–)
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (–)
4. Captain Phillips (5)
5. Philomena (4)

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Best Animated Feature
1. Frozen (–)
2. The Wind Rises (–)
3. The Croods (–)
4. Despicable Me 2 (5)
5. Ernest and Celestine (4)

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Best Foreign Language Film
1. The Great Beauty (–)
2. The Broken Circle Breakdown (3)
3. The Hunt (2)
4. Omar (–)
5. The Missing Picture (–)

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Best Original Score
1. Gravity (–)
2. Her (4)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (2)
4. Philomena (3)
5. The Book Thief (–)

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Best Sound Mixing
1. Gravity (–)
2. Captain Phillips (–)
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (4)
4. Lone Survivor (3)
5. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (–)

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Best Production Design
1. The Great Gatsby (2)
2. Gravity (3)
3. 12 Years A Slave (1)
4. Her (5)
5. American Hustle (4)

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Best Cinematography
1. Gravity (–)
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (–)
3. Prisoners (–)
4. Nebraska (–)
5. The Grandmaster (–)

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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
1. Dallas Buyers Club (–)
2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (–)
3. The Lone Ranger (–)

Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (–)
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave (3)
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle (2)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street (5)
5. Alexander Payne, Nebraska (4)
 
 
 
 

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Best Actress
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (–)
2. Amy Adams, American Hustle (–)
3. Judi Dench, Philomena (–)
4. Sandra Bullock, Gravity (–)
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (–)

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Best Supporting Actress
1. Lupita Nyongo, 12 Years A Slave (–)
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle (–)
3. June Squibb, Nebraska (–)
4. Julia Roberts, August Osage: County (–)
5. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine (–)

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Best Original Screenplay
1. Her (–)
2. American Hustle (–)
3. Nebraska (–)
4. Dallas Buyers Club (5)
5. Blue Jasmine (4)

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Best Documentary Feature
1. The Act of Killing (–)
2. 20 Feet from Stardom (–)
3. The Square (–)
4. Dirty Wars (–)
5. Cutie and the Boxer (–)

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Best Film Editing
1. Captain Phillips (3)
2. Gravity (1)
3. American Hustle (2)
4. 12 Years A Slave (–)
5. Dallas Buyers Club (–)

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Best Original Song
1. “Let It Go”, Frozen (–)
2. “Ordinary Love”, Mandela (–)
3. “The Moon Song”, Her (–)
4. “Happy”, Despicable Me 2 (–)
5. NOMINEE VACATED

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Best Sound Editing
1. Gravity (–)
2. Captain Phillips (–)
3. All Is Lost (–)
4. Lone Survivor (–)
5. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (–)

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Best Visual Effects
1. Gravity (–)
2. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (–)
3. Iron Man 3 (–)
4. Star Trek Into Darkness (–)
5. The Lone Ranger (–)

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Best Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby (–)
2. 12 Years A Slave (–)
3. American Hustle (–)
4. The Invisible Woman (–)
5. The Grandmaster (–)

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